NEW YORK (AP) — A recent study reveals that humanity is approaching the limits of life expectancy. While advancements in medical technology and genetic research have contributed to an increase in the number of people reaching the age of 100, researchers found that these developments are not significantly boosting overall lifespan, particularly in countries known for longevity.
Understanding Life Expectancy
Life expectancy refers to the average number of years a newborn is expected to live, based on current death rates. This measure is crucial to assessing the health of populations but has its limitations, as it can’t predict sudden changes caused by pandemics, groundbreaking medical advancements, or other unforeseen events that could significantly alter mortality rates.
S. Jay Olshansky, a researcher from the University of Illinois-Chicago and the lead author of the study published in the journal Nature Aging, stated, “We have to recognize there’s a limit” to life expectancy and suggested we need to reconsider retirement age and financial planning for later years.
Current Trends in Lifespan
The research, which analyzed life expectancy data from 1990 to 2019 sourced from a database by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, focused on countries with the highest life expectancy, including Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, and Switzerland. The United States, despite not ranking in the top 40, was included in the study due to its previous optimistic projections regarding life expectancy, as noted by Olshansky.
Mark Hayward from the University of Texas, who was not part of the study, remarked that this research is a “valuable addition to the mortality literature.” He confirmed that “we are reaching a plateau” in life expectancy improvements, acknowledging that while future breakthroughs might enhance survival rates, none are available currently.
Longevity Disparities
Women consistently outlive men, and while life expectancy continues to improve in certain areas, the pace of improvement has slowed significantly. In the 1990s, the average increase was around 2.5 years per decade, while in the 2010s, this figure dropped to 1.5 years—and was nearly stagnant in the U.S.
The situation is particularly dire in the U.S., which grapples with various health crises impacting people before old age, including drug overdoses, gun violence, and obesity, alongside systemic inequalities limiting access to healthcare. A hypothetical scenario proposed by the researchers indicated that if all premature deaths before age 50 were eliminated, life expectancy would increase by just 1.5 years—a modest gain.
Eileen Crimmins, an expert in gerontology at the University of Southern California, echoed the findings, emphasizing the concerning decline in the relative position of life expectancy in the United States.
The Limits of Longevity
The study asserts that humanity has reached a ceiling in life expectancy. “We’re squeezing less and less life out of these life-extending technologies. Aging complicates matters,” Olshansky explained. Despite increasing occurrences of centenarians—exemplified by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter reaching this milestone last week—only about 2% of Americans currently reach the age of 100, compared to 5% in Japan and 9% in Hong Kong. Researchers anticipate that while the number of centenarians may rise due to population growth, the actual percentage of people reaching this age will remain relatively low, with fewer than 15% of women and 5% of men likely to achieve this status in most countries.
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The Associated Press Health and Science Department is supported by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.
